There’s a 40-percent chance the United States will slip into another recession in 2012, according to Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae, the taxpayer-owned mortgage giant.
“We don’t think the economy is going to go into recession, but it wouldn’t take too big of a trigger to tip it,” Duncan told the San Diego Source newspaper.
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If we do fall into a double-dip recession, the main reason will be: Jobs, or lack thereof. The nation’s unemployment rate remains roughly the same today as it was a year ago, Duncan said, which continues to be a drag on the economy.
“It’s so dependent on unemployment,” says Duncan. As a result of continued joblessness, “This is the weakest expansion since World War II,” he says.
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Christopher Maag Contributing writer for Credit.com, Chris graduated with honors from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, and has reported for a number of publications including The New York Times, TIME magazine and Popular Mechanics. Have a question for our experts? Email them at CreditExperts@Credit.com.
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Mr. Duncan states “the nation’s unemployment rate remains roughly the same today as it was a year ago”, yet the public is told by the government the unemployment rate is “improving”. Anyone care to explain the apparent impossibility of both statements being correct? What about all those who are “under-employed” or those who have simply given up searching for work? Could it be the “improvement” stated by our leaders can be directly related to the desire to stay in office?